"Here's a number for you. The Russians are expending 60,000 artillery rounds a day in the UKR. The type of combat I expect to see in Taiwan. Where is that getting them?"Russia's military failures in Ukraine are not related to how many artillery rounds it is expending daily in Ukraine.
"There's only 3 beaches capable of supporting bde+ level landings. It ain't hard to concentrate a corps per beach while leaving the RES (180K strong) in RES."
This one says 14 beaches:
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/03/05/taiwan-exercise-chinese-amphibious-landings/#:~:text=Several%20military%20analysts%20and%20experts,Zhuangwei%2C%20Luodong%2C%20and%20Linyuan.
Can you link an article that says only 3?
"Commercial ships are the easiest to stop. Sink a freighter in its path."
Huh? Any ship, even a carrier, could be stopped this way, if it were a narrow patch of water like the Suez Canal. OTOH we are talking about an invasion force in/near Taiwan. If you look at old photos of Normandy beach and various other landing sites on D-day, there are ships of all drafts, from small beach landing ships to massive ro-ro size ships, all landing at Normandy. The secret is of course the portable pontoons being used further out from shore to ferry vehicles onto the shore for those huge ships with deep drafts.
"None of this changes the fact that China would be bingo ammo after any fight to take Taiwan and have nothing left to take on the US."
You don't know that China would be "bingo ammo" after any fight to take Taiwan. Second, you were the one who said Taiwan didn't even need help (yet) so why bring in the US to help if Taiwan doesn't need it?
