"No, China has ~2,000 BALLISTIC missiles. Nobody knows how many cruise missiles (ASCMs + LACMs) are in China's inventories; I would assume a far larger number than that given ballistic missiles are much larger and more expensive than standard ASCMs. And we're not even talking dumb bombs, LGBs, JDAMs, helo-fired ATGMs, suicide drones, and ARMs yet. Oh and let's not forget about the massive waves of rocket artillery that easily have the range to reach Taiwan's west coast and even some interior cities. "

Here's a number for you. The Russians are expending 60,000 artillery rounds a day in the UKR. The type of combat I expect to see in Taiwan. Where is that getting them?

There's only 3 beaches capable of supporting bde+ level landings. It ain't hard to concentrate a corps per beach while leaving the RES (180K strong) in RES.

Commercial ships are the easiest to stop. Sink a freighter in its path.

None of this changes the fact that China would be bingo ammo after any fight to take Taiwan and have nothing left to take on the US.