I actually felt it is more probable that taiwan will be the one giving China a reason for war than China manufacturing a reason to invade. The way they try to break the diplomatic isolation have become more brazen these days, and the west have become more accommodative towards it. They are also getting more naive, just like those in Ukraine who think the "good guys" will always win, and the west will come to defend them. There are politicians in the US who think it is better to have war with China today, then later when China is stronger. I don't know if there are DPP politicians in taiwan who think the same, but they surely become more reckless these days.

Anyway, I agree that China need Taiwan, and will probably have to manufacture some casus belli if China is ready. I also wonder how this Ukraine war will change the calculation. This feel like Korean war all over again.