Well, some expert (forget his name) said that Ukraine will end up like North and South Korea, where they will settle their east and west boundary but without formal peace settlement, probably only cease fire. But I suspect that will be few more years before that can happen, it will happen when there will be less and less of territory changing hand in the war. Frankly I prefer if the war end now, and Russia could rebuild its country and focus on working with China to face uncle sam, rather than continuing this war and drive Europeans to uncle sam's camp.

As for China, while I think China should keep relationship with Ukraine, China should prioritize its relationship with Russia. I hope China will invest massively in Russia, especially in Siberia, in food production especially. That will be win win for both countries. China should also supply Russia with consumer goods to replace the western goods. And while it is probably impossible for China to support Russia militarily, it is possible to help Russia defence by investing in manufacturing that supply the Russia military industrial complex, like steel manufacturers or chemical industry. China-Russia relationship will also depend on what this "new" Ukraine could possibly offer China. A broken Ukraine might not be able to offer much, and if Ukraine siding with the US and turn hostile to China, then it maybe time to side with the Russians fully.

What I'm watching right now is European reaction. Germany has said that it wanted to "pivot" away from China, to cut off the "dependency on China". The same with UK. While I think that is easier said than done, especially considering their current abysmal economic situation, China should prepare. Thinking back, I think China dual circulation policy is really gaining momentum in today situation. I'm not surprised with Eastern Europe getting hostile with China, after all they are manufacturing competitors to China in Western Europe market. They used to expect China to invest in manufacturing in their countries to supply Western Europe. But now I suspect the Western Europe will increase their manufacturing investment more in Eastern Europe to replace China, and the Eastern Europe feel like they don't need China anymore. China should focus on investing in Africa, South East Asia, and Latin America. That's where the real growth will come for the next 50 years.