I do not always support Xi's policy, and certainly not a fan of his recent attempt at third term. But I think he had no choice about his hardline stance if you are talking about foreign policy. America accused China of salami tactics, changing the facts on the ground slice by slice. But actually China didn't start it. It was other countries started it. Take South China issue. It was Malaysia and Vietnam or Philippine (I can't remember which one) that started it when they started their own reclamation project. Former Singaporean diplomat, Kishore Mahbubani said it in a forum long ago. China just counter attacked in a massive ways. The same thing happened with Daioyu island. It was the lunatic former tokyo governor who wanted to purchase the island for his own political agenda, to provoke China, forcing Japanese gov to nationalize it, and provoking China into sending patrol ships.

Most of all, I think the degrading Sino-US relationship is inevitable. We saw the signs as far back as since 2001 Hainan incident. When Bush Jr was elected, he promised to take a hardline approach vis a vis China. Of course 9/11 and 2008 financial meltdown forced him to seek Chinese cooperation. Then Obama came along with Hillary and her pivot to Asia. And Finally Trump came with his trade war, wrecking every thing. It is not China's fault, but the US is looking for scapegoat for their failures. One Chinese official said to western journalist, I wish China can help solve the US problems, but China can't. The only options left for China is to take the blame and capitulate like the Japanese did in the 80's, destroying Japanese economy for good, or fight back. China chose the second one. Sometimes no matter how we plan, we can't pick the time for a fight. China have just grown too big to be invisible. Deng's policy of hiding your strength and biding your time can't work anymore. Other countries have taken notice of China's rise and responded accordingly. They fear if they stay still, it will be too late to confront China. They tried to force China into making compromise before they are unable to do that. They got a point from their perspective. But from China's perspective, it is probably like a guy who sit with every one side by side, and suddenly got fatter and has to shove others bit by bit to get more space. It is inevitable. Geopolitical space is a zero sum game after all.

Frankly, the one that surprised me the most is Australia reaction to China rise. Australia is the last country that I thought would confront China publicly. From the Chinese gov reaction, I suspect they are also caught off guard. After all, China and Australia economy are complimentary to each other, and they have no territorial issue. Australia went even further than what the US demanded from Australia in confronting China, almost to the point of taking the lead. I guess yellow peril is alive and kicking in Australia.

Another country that I think China need to pay attention to is South Korea, and it is not because of the recently elected right wing president that seek closer relationship with America and Japan. But because Chinese economy under Xi want to evolve into something that will more and more compete directly with South Korean industry. That will give incentive for South Korea to "defect" to the other camp.

As for the crisis today, it is indeed thrilling if not scary. Food crisis, energy crisis, etc. Indonesia just started to ban the export of palm oil. While there are some countries like Pakistan, Nepal and Sri Lanka expecting China to bail them out, I don't think it is that simple. There are shortage of every thing, throwing money at this time is like throwing money into bottomless pit. Certainly not a good idea. The sane thing to do is to invest to increase the production capacity in those countries to deal with shortages. But in the short term, there will be political upheavals like what we saw in Sri Lanka or Pakistan. China should also encourage other countries to adopt Yuan as their foreign reserves and trade currency to diversify from dollars, if they want China's help.