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Zhen Zhu Wan Online Community Club of Elite Chinese

Zhen Zhu Wan Online Community Club of Elite Chinese


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Replying to: Re: War is never good for China. -- sinbad Post ReplyForum


swoosh

04/27/2022, 17:59:15




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CCP elected Xi precisely because they expected him to be hardline. The leadership probably knew they are going to face more aggressive US. After all, they have seen what Bush Jr and Obama did. The US increasingly confrontative against China under both. China also knew America economy is in trouble due to mismanagement for years, and sooner or later, the American politicians will blame it on China. The leadership just underestimated the time table. They thought they still have time, until Trump appeared and wrecked every thing. China can't afford leader that will kowtow to the US and suffer the same fate as the japanese.

For Taiwan issue, China is facing dilemma. The truth is, most taiwanese have apprehension about China. Hu and Wen managed to get on good term with KMT and Ma Ying Jeou administration. But in return, the taiwanese feeling that taiwan has been too close to mainland for their comfort. Then they elected DPP and that crazy lady you mentioned. It is hardly Xi's fault. Too close, they feel uncomfortable. Pivoting to DPP, and now mainlanders are the one that feel uncomfortable. Xi has to react to DPP's provocation or he won't be able to keep his seat, much less third term.

As for GDP slowing, I actually think it isn't necessarily a bad thing. For years, China has grown in super speed at the cost of environment and inequality. Because of lack of regulation, the tech market have also grown into a wild wild west market, where loan sharks and scammers swim freely looking for preys, not to mention the rise of mostly worthless online tuition. More importantly, Chinese GDP rely on export and US market too much. In the degrading Sino-US relationship environment, it is better to prepare and hedge your option. Of course, Xi also made some mistakes IMO. Like forcing companies to accept CCP member into companies board, which IMO, is overeached. Or cracking down on entertainment industry on non tax related issues, like tattoo or masculinity. I think government shouldn't micro manage things like people's lifestyle. It gives the air of oppression, which could backfire badly for CCP. There are better ways to do that.

IMHO, Australia is still traumatized by Japanese invasion, and feeling insecure as the last and largest white outpost in Asia.

Chinese industry begin to eat South Korean companies' lunch. Just look at smartphone market, how Samsung got pushed out of Chinese market. Overtime, South Korea will feel less need to placate China because China has turned into serious competitor, and may seek closer relationship with the US to gain more market share in US market and global market. The US will probably more than happy to help South Korea in that regards.

What Sri Lanka and other countries need today isn't just delaying loan payment and interest, they need more money to prop their economy. But throwing money at them today won't solve their problems. All the money will disappear into consumption due to high inflation. You give them money today, they will use it to buy fuel and food, things that will turn into sh1ts, then they will come back to ask for more. Even China is witholding or restraining its own stimulus to Chinese market. When there are shortage of goods, pumping money into the market won't increase demands, it will just increase the price. From my experience, no country ever have good experience when they dealt with IMF. Sure, they might be force to deal with IMF, but IMF won't give them the free lunch. IMF will force them to make sacrifice. Let IMF nurse them back to health, then China can swoop in to offer vitamin in the form of investment once they are back on the track. This is something that IMF can't offer them. Sick countries won't be much of help anyway in helping China dealing with the US. They won't be much help to the US either. If IMF fail to save them, then it won't matter what China do anyway.






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