cyber horse
03/01/2022, 08:25:37
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Some general thoughts about big picture trends that will start now, which will be correct, or totally wrong! :)
- Russia ties with Europe are being broken. Russia must deepen its economic ties to China in order to survive. Russia will gain something of the Ukraine for this tradeoff. In the long run, Russia probably come out of this okay.
- The west and Europe all of the sudden is facing a three front competition in the world. ONE, the real confrontation with Russia in Europe. TWO, an American lead quasi-containment of China in Asia. THREE, competition with China economically across the globe. What this war does is heighten the competition between the United States and China. How many others buy into this, remains unknown. Some European states probably will want to stay neutral.
- China is receiving a strategic windfall, probably bigger than 9/11. The trade war and tech war kind of showed the Americans needed help to take on China. Now with another war in Europe, defense spending goes up in Europe. They will be buying tanks and not aircraft carriers. The European have enough internal problems to go into an external problem with China.
- The collapse of the alliance system and balance of power thesis. WW1, WW2, Cold War, Russia today, the alliance structure could not prevent any wars, inside Europe or outside of it. This is a total meltdown for the Western international relations ideology and theory, because it appears that what they believed in was all wrong.
- It is an European war. The rest of the world should not care. No one says anything. I don't live in Europe, and I know I do not care at all. This is what they always do anyways. If not doing a war in Europe, then they make war somewhere else. It's their problem. That should be the prevailing attitude in the rest of the world.
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