in a way, it is already over, this contest of the future, in tech at least
Replying to: Anyone who think business will be back as usual is delusional -- Swoosh Post ReplyForum


cyber horse

09/03/2021, 09:22:19




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There is a tech decoupling happening between China and America.

How far this really goes is hard to say.

Two important areas of decoupling is telecommunications and high end computing with its entire supply chain.

Everything else in the relationship between China and America probably will not move much. In the areas of telecom and IC, there will be separate ecosystems.


What this means is not particularly dramatic. It is just business.

It seems to me the way it works with tech, is that word iteration. We have a widget, and in the next iteration of that widget is improved with better engineering.

The engineering is going one way in China, and the engineering in another way in America. Once that starts, that's it, the tech it will go their separate routes. We are already there with Huawei and SMIC.

Once the separation is in place like it is now, then it does not matter what happens on the other side. They can do whatever they want. China and America must look after their own business.


For Chinese tech, they do not have to be concerned about having a market to sell to because China is already the world's largest industrial market for goods, and the world's largest consumer market.

Plus the fact that China signed the RCEP with the region, and that makes the RCEP the largest trading block in the world and the fastest trading block in the world. Usually, what happens is these blocks set rules to facilitate more between their members. Safe to say that this RCEP will agree to technical standards that everyone agrees with. They will be on the same page.

China will not agree to use American standards in the RCEP, and since the biggest trader to all RCEP nations is China, this should not be a problem. The point is to facilitate trade, not impede it.

If the world has two competing standards for various industrial and tech items, China is not concerned with that because of the China market. If a company wants to sell into the China market, it must adhere to those technical standards.

RCEP will mostly follow along, because why wouldn't they. That is want RCEP is for, to harmonize policies and increase trade.


As for Europe and China, they do not have a separate tech ecosystem at the moment. China and America are developing separate tech ecosystems but not China and Europe.

That is why this US government vs Huawei fight is so important and still ongoing. It is kind of like a fight for everything.

Huawei had the best gear. There is only one standard for the sub-6 network because Huawei has the gear and the patents.

Huawei still has the upper hand. European governments do not want to ban Huawei because it is not in their interests. But where does that leave the Americans in this fight over technical standards and market share? The technical standards will definitely be used to block out others.


To me, the fight is about market share in the future, but the actual tech fight itself is probably over. Both sides going their own way in telecom and IC.






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