I think China already declare its intention to replace unreliable supplier with the threat to release the unreliable list and the huge investment on tech independence. But forcing foreign companies to choose aren't always as simple as it seems.
The US is the source of the tech for many of EU and East Asian companies, the US is also their number one or number two market. Then the US is also controlling the international financial system through SWIFT. Meanwhile, China, although it is probably the biggest market in the world, but for now at least, the foreign companies still don't depend so much on China for the source of tech. China also isn't controlling the international financial system. What China has is the manufacturing supply chain. From ASML and TSMC reactions to the US threat, we can see how they made their choices, and they are not good for China. Clearly they know it will be painful if China retaliate, but in the short term, they have to comply with the US demand if they want to survive. It is also clear that China can't retaliate without making things worse for Chinese tech sector because the lack of other source of tech supply, that's why so far China hasn't released any of the unreliable list, at least in the short term.
The good thing though, is that those foreign non US corporations are also exploring the ways to replace US tech to supply China, and this IMHO must be encouraged and supported by China.
As for China successfully achieving its goal of developing IC industry, I think we must not count the chicks before the eggs hatch. China has tried to build its semiconductor industry for years, and spent billions on it, and still China is pretty far behind. I'm worried that China is too overconfident and make fatal mistake. By declaring that China will drive out foreign companies if China can make its own semiconductor, could also push them into the US camp in this containment strategy.
China should also not be overconfident over RCEP deal. To me, RCEP is good for trade, but it is hardly game changing. For once, China already has thriving business relationship with most members of RCEP. Signing RCEP won't immediately give China much benefit. RCEP just made the relationship official. It is like a couple who have live together for years, and only now committed to marriage. It feel great, but not much change.
China need to learn from Lee Kuan Yew when Singapore just gained independence among hostile neighbors, and being cut off from old and weakened patron, the UK. China need to laser focus on achievable goals, and seek cooperation with as many countries as possible. China also need to be humble. Thankfully, it seems Xi understand this, that is why his ministers are signing RCEP and EU investment deal, and offering cooperation with South Korea and Japan.
