Some update and correction on previous assumptions.

First news flash, new 3.2 m diameter solid fuel rocket ground test has been conducted successfully today. The new solid rocket will power future KZ-21 and KZ-31 rockets that are capable of lifting 20 tons and 70 tons payload to LEO respectively.

This is the two stage ground test conducted last year.

Today's test involved three stage rocket.

Space station update

Firstly the correction, Shenzhou mission next year start from SZ-12. And next year's SZ-12, SZ-13 will be manned, and accordingly they will be launched by CZ-2F/G, which means next year mission will still be using the old Shenzhou spacecraft. The manned mission will test the Tianhe core module, particularly the robotic arm. So from SZ-12 onwards, the CSS will be manned, although their job is to construct and test the CSS. Scientific experiments will have to wait for CSS's inauguration in 2022.

CZ-8 update

The normal CZ-8 will not be reusable. It is a low cost and mature rocket using existing technology such as second stage of CZ-3A, simplified first stage of CZ-7. CZ-8 will become the main work horse of CNSA very soon, from 2022 onwards, we may see up to 30 launches of CZ-8 annually from all four launch sites in China. The reusable version is CZ-8R, which will take four years to develop starting next year (?). It's expected to be ready by 2025. So in the coming four years, we'll be seeing test of CZ-8R. I hope we can see its first flight by 2021, if not, then 2022. It seem CNSA has another VTVL reusable rocket that's based on CZ-6, although CZ-6 is solid fuel rocket, so I'm not sure if it make sense, or I misunderstand something. And up to three private rocket ventures are also trying to develop reusable rockets.

So, from 2022 onwards, we'll be seeing a lot of CZ-8 launches, presumably CZ-2, 3, 4 launches will be reduced. The weather is very cloudy on Dec 22.

Private venture Landspace testing their 80 tons and 10 tons TQ engine in Nov 27.