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03/31/2020, 02:54:35
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finally foreign entry was restricted on Mar 28. However Taiwan and HK remained a loop hole. Fortunately Shenzhen had closed its gateway to HK and HK had barred international visitors, and Xiamen has canceled all inward flights from Taiwan, but entry from Jinmen can still be a loop hole.People entering Shenzhen from HK before the closure.
 The problem of under testing masking the true scale of outbreak has been a world wide phenomenon. The following table shows the total and new cases throughout March for USA, Japan, and Taiwan in particular. Each has a date that triggered the rise of new cases.
| | USA | Japan | Taiwan |
| Mar | Total | New | Total | New | Total | New |
| 1 | 69 | 1 | 252 | 11 | 40 | 1 |
| 2 | 88 | 19 | 274 | 22 | 41 | 1 |
| 3 | 103 | 15 | 289 | 15 | 42 | 1 |
| 4 | 132 | 29 | 319 | 30 | 42 | 0 |
| 5 | 169 | 37 | 331 | 12 | 42 | 0 |
| 6 | 236 | 67 | 381 | 50 | 44 | 2 |
| 7 | 335 | 99 | 461 | 80 | 45 | 1 |
| 8 | 447 | 112 | 502 | 41 | 45 | 0 |
| 9 | 566 | 119 | 530 | 28 | 45 | 0 |
| 10 | 729 | 163 | 581 | 51 | 47 | 2 |
| 11 | 1,016 | 287 | 639 | 50 | 48 | 1 |
| 12 | 1,380 | 364 | 643 | 4 | 49 | 1 |
| 13 | 1,832 | 452 | 701 | 58 | 50 | 1 |
| 14 | 2,340 | 508 | 788 | 85 | 53 | 3 |
| 15 | 3,083 | 743 | 814 | 26 | 59 | 6 |
| 17 | 5,263 | 2,180 | 878 | 64 | 77 | 18 |
| 18 | 7,568 | 2,305 | 899 | 21 | 100 | 23 |
| 19 | 13,789 | 6,221 | 943 | 44 | 108 | 8 |
| 20 | 19,383 | 5,594 | 1,007 | 64 | 135 | 27 |
| 21 | 24,207 | 4,824 | 1,054 | 47 | 153 | 18 |
| 22 | 33,546 | 9,339 | 1,101 | 47 | 169 | 16 |
| 23 | 43,734 | 10,168 | 1,128 | 27 | 195 | 26 |
| 24 | 54,881 | 11,100 | 1,193 | 65 | 216 | 21 |
| 25 | 68,211 | 13,355 | 1,307 | 114 | 235 | 19 |
| 26 | 85,435 | 17,224 | 1,387 | 80 | 252 | 17 |
| 27 | 104,126 | 18,691 | 1,499 | 112 | 267 | 15 |
| 28 | 123,578 | 19,452 | 1,693 | 194 | 283 | 16 |
| 29 | 142,460 | 18,882 | 1,866 | 173 | 298 | 15 |
| 30 | 163,844 | 20,353 | 1,953 | 87 | 306 | 8 |
| 31 | 188,530 | 24,742 | 2,229 | 276 | 322 | 16 |
Mar 9 - Trump has finally do responsible testing after the declaration of emergency due to stock market crash. You can see from the rapid rising cases since then, there definitely were big number of undetected cases way long before Mar 9. You don't rise from 69 cases in Mar 1 to 188,530 cases by Mar 31, more than double the number of cases in China for the entire outbreak, and this is not the final number of cases yet as ongoing tests are still uncovering hidden cases. This infection rate would mean the world is screwed. But this rate is not seen in the rest of the world, the plausible explanation is that the nearly 200K cases in US is due to the community spread that had been undergoing for months. Using a simple model to illustrate the point. Assume it take two weeks to one month to get the single patient zero to infect the first 100 cases, and from then on, the number of cases doubled every week. It would take additional 12 weeks to go from 100 cases to 204K cases, which means if US has 200K cases right now, the spreading would have started in Dec 2019. Or by comparison, it took China from Dec to Mar to get to 81K cases with strict containment, what'd be the number without containment? Mar 18 - Taiwan's cases started to rise after they barred entry of foreign visitors from Mar 18 onwards. Yes, the number of new cases actually raised after foreign entry was barred, strange isn't it? Before Mar 18 new cases had been in the tune of 0, 1, 2, and after that, new cases are in the tune of 15, 16, 17, basically flat numbers. These people are playing with numbers if you ask me. Mar 23 - You can also see Japan's new cases started to rise after the postponement of the Tokyo Olympic on Mar 23, not surprising, right? Before the postponement their numbers were definitely artificially suppressed for the obvious reason. The problem is, like Taiwan, Japan still have low and stable increments, so both of them may not have been honest with their situation yet.
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