really surprised that they made a deal no matter how small, then again ...
Replying to: Hate to crow but I predicted a trade deal is imminent sometime ago. -- rip2 Post ReplyForum


cyber horse

10/11/2019, 13:55:36




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It was back in May, when Trump angry over something forget now, and tweeted that he demanded that US corporations return to America and vacate their China operations.

No one knows what the Chinese leadership was thinking behind this tweet, but they could have been laughing their asses off. President Trump at that point looked like he had lost it, and was exposed as a complete simpleton and idiot. After jacking up tariffs all year, he does it again, causing some disruption but not really doing anything for America. Then he surely appeared he believed his own rhetoric that China was paying for the tariffs. What a fool. There is no point in dealing someone like that.

So personally I find it amazing that Trump grew a brain from May to October. Then again, I don't follow US politics. Maybe it was all for show. Of course, no US corporations listened to those tweets, and the Chinese leadership ignored it. IMHO, this deal was only possible because of the reversal of Trump from May this year.

What is important during this trade war seems to be:

1. The strength Chinese industry, given all the attacks against Huawei which did not slow it down, and Chinese manufacturing only declined slightly.

2. American corporations refuse to leave the China market. The multinational sets up production inside China to serve the China market, and sets up production outside of China to serve the world. These multinationals did not leave China to return to America. This will be a permanent industrial configuration for the world going forward. There still is a China supply chain, there is a supply chain around China, an American mainland supply chain, and the European supply chain. (Note: who has the most advanced tech has an advantage to their supply and who is the largest has an advantage because of economies of scale).

3. There is probably more but I forget now, that the US Sino relationship is back to what I think Condi Rice called it, "frienemy". This I am surprised. I thought we just head straight to the tech cold war, but not back to the ideas of the Dubya Bush administration.

4. Huawei is going to dominate 5G worldwide.
https://venturebeat.com/2019/10/09/huawei-hits-record-5g-speed-of-3-67gbps-on-live-swiss-c-band-network/

5. What I found the most shocking from the economic angle was that US manufacturing has entered a recession. The trade war pushed world wide manufacturing to a standstill and the American manufacturing was contracting for 3 or 4 months. Chinese manufacturing was not contraction from what I believe. Industrial output in China was still growing although at a far slower pace (reasons could be varied), but US industrial output was actually in recession.

(Given those facts, as back in May the evidence was growing that US manufacturing was slowing down because of the tariffs from the trade war. What does Trump do? Trump if a fit, increases the tariff. What a nut. There was no hope for a solution. Trump would rather see a industrial recession and a large trade deficit America to destroy his own political career. By then it was too obvious that the trade war had a blunted and very limited affect on China. )

6. The US China trade still is very lopsided as ever for one side. That has not changed at all.

7. Buy the stocks, as the trade slowed down the economy and there is some problem with the short term interest rate markets. The Fed is going back to QE, which essentially is printing money.

The stock market will go up. The Fed action for more liquidity, that is guarantee, to flood the system with money again, just like Bernake did. Probably a world wide stock market rally.






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