# INTEL in deep trouble

Issues with the 10 nm node yields:

• Base 10 nm production started in late 2018 has been improved in the meantime. Still does not appear viable for “full production” and “shipping for revenue” purposes.
• Upcoming SuperFin 10 nm nodes are “unquestionably far better than base 10nm. Better in just about every way. Yields are better (50+%), but still not as good at the 14 nm nodes.
• Cannon Lake (the first processors to be produced on the base 10 nm node launched 2 years ago) had yields lower than 25% even with iGPU disabled.
• The 10 nm capacity is far from handling an entire product stack.
• Even with SuperFin tech, the 10 nm production capacity may never match that of the 14 nm nodes.
• Backporting the upcoming Rocket Lake processors was not a good move: the new models ended up too big and are expected to be power hogs.
• 14nm shortage caused by the fact that Intel had to bloat up die sizes.
• “OEMs told they were to get a "small fraction" of orders of TGL. Improvements to yield won't fully help because no. of wafer starts is still low.”

• Ice Lake SP processors delayed again due to a bug. Release scheduled moved to mid-late Q2 or early Q3 2021. “Performance looks pretty poor. Akin to Comet Lake SP actually - performance per socket remains the same but power rises. Core count for shipping parts dropped from 38 -> 36.” Ice Lake is disappointing.

7 nm node delays:

• “7 nm is significantly more delayed than the 6-12 months first claimed. Ponte Vecchio is in-hands basically now and it was the first 7 nm product. Now it's on TSMC. Sometime December this year anyway.”
• The actual release schedule for the 7 nm products is still not clear
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## 岳东晓

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