{Europe is facing defeat in Ukraine as its policies on the war go sideways. Europe’s approach is increasingly unreflective of the growing reality on the ground while growing efforts to punish Russia and promote sending troops to Ukraine appear counterproductive.}
{Notably, all Western plans to defeat the Russians have so far failed. Looking past the mutual recriminations, it is clear by now that the “plan” was a fantasy.
If the Ukrainian offensive used a preponderance of Western hardware, had exceptional tactical intelligence, thousands of drones and endless ammunition, and still went belly-up, the future is grim. A leaked US Pentagon report that showed casualties at seven Ukrainians to every one Russian (or worse) was the handwriting on the wall.}
{The Russians did not start the Ukraine war in good military form and made many tactical mistakes. But that has since changed as the Russian army has toughened up and its command, with the exception of the Russian Navy, is much improved at all levels.}
{But her appreciation is not shared by those in power in France, Germany, Britain or Poland, no matter what brave words they tell their home audiences. They fear what will happen next when Ukraine is defeated.}
{Ukraine’s real problem is manpower. They have run out of people willing to serve and morale in the Ukrainian army is starting to crack. These growing manifestations of collapse are bound to bring about political change in Kiev.}
{Germany’s Scholz says he won’t accept a Putin-dictated peace in Ukraine. This is the rough equivalent of Scholz saying he won’t let Donald Trump win the US presidential election. Not only is Scholz’s position nonsense, but it misses the mark.
The likely end of the Ukraine conflict will come when the Ukrainian army decides it can’t keep fighting. Then the army will refuse orders from Kiev or it will seek to change the government’s leadership.}
{On one level, Europe’s leaders know where all this is headed in Ukraine but they don’t want to be honest either with their own people or themselves. So they are doubling down dangerously in support of a lost war.}
