John Mearsheimer, in an interview, also argues South Africa’s case of genocide against Israel before the ICJ will further isolate the Jewish state and the US, while Palestinians face the bleak prospect of apartheid or ethnic cleansing.
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My Take by Alex Lo
China derives enormous diplomatic benefits from Palestine crisis, top US political scientist says
John Mearsheimer, in an interview, also argues South Africa’s case of genocide against Israel before the ICJ will further isolate the Jewish state and the US, while Palestinians face the bleak prospect of apartheid or ethnic cleansing
Palestinians face bleak prospects of ethnic cleansing or apartheid, warns US political scientist
Palestinians face bleak prospects of ethnic cleansing or apartheid, warns US political scientist
What do you think about South Africa’s case of genocide against Israel before the International Court of Justice (ICJ)? Is it convincing?
I listened to the South African case as it was presented from start to finish. I thought the team did an excellent job. It was done very professionally. I found nothing in the presentation that was really surprising because they issued an 84-page report beforehand that I had read. And the presentation made by the South African team corresponded quite closely with that.
What about Israel’s defence?
I had not known what they were going to say because the Israelis did not present any document beforehand. Nevertheless, I anticipated what they would say would reflect their talking points over the past few months at great length in the West.
They did not disappoint me. What the Israelis argued was not surprising for the most part. My view going in, which is that the Israelis are in the process of waging a genocide against the Palestinians, is the same view I left with after hearing the Israelis.
The ICJ case clearly has an impact on how the world, global opinion, views Israel, the Israel-US relationship and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. What do you see are the implications for these three factors?
For the Israelis, this was a disastrous situation because here you have a state, a Jewish state, and in light of the Holocaust, to be accused of genocide is absolutely terrible.
Furthermore, when you look at the evidence that the South Africans brought forth, it was massive and in my opinion, it was compelling. Even if you don’t believe it’s genocide, it’s at least mass murder. This will be permanently a moral stain on Israel’s reputation. That’s why the Israelis are fighting it so rigorously.
For the Americans, the problem is that they are basically complicit in this genocide; not only the weapons but also the diplomatic support. The United States protects the Israelis at every turn on the diplomatic front, and in terms of economic assistance. So you can make the case that If the Israelis are guilty, we are complicit. This is a huge problem for us, [not only] for our moral reputation, but also in terms of diplomacy.
The United States has a deep-seated interest in having good relations with other countries around the world and having other countries think we play by the rules, that we play fair and square and so on. This [ICJ case] certainly cuts into that.
From the Palestinians’ point of view, they are simply desperate for help. Anything that they can get to help them to get out of this horrendous situation they are in would be welcome. The Palestinians are hoping that something good comes out of this to alleviate their suffering.
People are often confused about the ICJ and the International Criminal Court (ICC). The former is for disputes between states. If anyone is going to jail, it’s through the ICC, which seems to be taking the back seat. Is the ICC being negligent?
The ICC has not done anything at this point in time. Everything has involved the ICJ so far. This is really a case where South Africa brought a case against Israel on behalf of the Palestinians. As you know, the Palestinians do not have a state of their own.
With regard to the ICC, nothing has happened. But it’s too soon to tell whether anything will happen. The war started on October 7 and today is January 15. It may be the case that eventually, people may be charged by the ICC. At this point in time, what’s really important is what’s happening with the International Court of Justice.
How do you think the overall Palestinian-Israeli conflict will play out, not just in terms of the ICJ and the current war?
The Israelis are in control of the Occupied Territories. These include the West Bank and Gaza. As a result, you have the greater Israel, which includes Israel before the 1967 war plus Gaza, plus the West Bank. This greater Israel is an apartheid state. The question moving forward is whether or not that will change.
I think the only way it will change is if the Israelis are able to ethnically cleanse Gaza and ethnically cleanse the West Bank.
The problem for the Israelis is that you have roughly an equal number of Palestinians and Jews inside of greater Israel. So there is no way you can have a democratic greater Israel because it will eventually be a Palestinian state. And of course, the Israelis are adamantly opposed to giving up Gaza and the West Bank.
So you are really left with two alternatives. One is apartheid, which is what you now have, and two is ethnic cleansing – you just push all the Palestinians or most of them out of Gaza and the West Bank.
If you look at what the Israelis are doing in Gaza since October 7, it’s quite clear what they are doing is waging a punishment campaign against the civilian population that is designed to ethnically cleanse Gaza.
They have not been successful so far, although they have created a humanitarian disaster inside of Gaza; they have not been able to push the Palestinians out.
I think ultimately that will fail. And the end result, moving forward, is we will have an ugly apartheid state in greater Israel and we will have unending trouble. There is no end in sight.
Given that, do you think the US will ever revise its “no limits” relationship with Israel?
There is no question that Israel is a liability for the United States. But every president since Jimmy Carter has been interested in a two-state solution. Every president has strongly believed that a greater Israel, which was effectively an apartheid state, was a disaster for Israel, and it was a disaster for the United States. Presidents and their lieutenants pushed very hard for a two-state solution. But it was impossible for them to put any meaningful pressure on Israel.
The main reason is that the power of the Israel lobby in the US is so great that any time a president began to exercise coercive leverage with Israel, the lobby would move in and stop that president in his tracks. The end result was that Israel was allowed to go on building this greater Israel and go on thinking it could manage the problem in Gaza and the West Bank. But eventually it all blew up in Israel’s face.
At this point in time, it’s hard to imagine getting a two-state solution. I think that’s out of the question.
This is why the two choices are ethnic cleansing and apartheid, two horrible choices I might add.
Your most controversial book [The Israel Lobby and US Foreign Policy, by John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt] was on the Jewish lobby in the US. In light of what’s happening, do you think it will retain its influence? The younger generation, the TikTok generation, has been more sceptical of the Israeli-American narrative and more pro-Palestinian.
There is no question that the Israel lobby is mainly concerned not with public opinion in the US, but mainly concerned with having significant influence with people at the White House and people in [the US] Congress. Those are the people who make policies, and the lobby concentrates most of its firepower by making sure those people remain firmly committed to supporting Israel unconditionally.
In other words, no matter what Israel does, the lobby wants the White House and Congress to back Israel to the hilt.
The lobby has been widely successful in getting American policymakers both on Capitol Hill and in the White House not to challenge Israel in any meaningful way.
[As for] public opinion, especially with regard to young people and the Democratic Party, you see a substantial growing amount of dissatisfaction inside the body politic. The question is whether that dissatisfaction will have any effect on what American policymakers do. And there is no evidence of that at this point in time.
Change down below, I don’t think at least in the foreseeable future, will have much effect up on top, which is what really matters.
[Benjamin] Netanyahu understands that; he can do pretty much anything he wants and the Americans are not going to protest too much. Even if the Americans protest about ethnic cleansing, if the Israelis accomplish a major ethnic cleansing campaign in Gaza, what are we going to do? Are the Americans going to intervene and reverse it? I don’t think so.
Are we going to continue to support Israel, even though they ethnically cleanse Gaza? I think so. Do I regret it? Yes, I greatly regret it. But when it comes to the US-Israel relationship, because of the power of the lobby, this is the way it works.
Where do you think China is in all this,given its overall ambitions in the Middle East?
This is all wonderful news for China, for a variety of reasons. First of all, it keeps the Americans pinned down in the Middle East; they are not only pinned down in Ukraine, which makes it very difficult for the US to concentrate on containing China.
Furthermore, this situation is doing damage to America’s reputation around the world, and making it harder for the US to win friends and influence people. And this is to China’s advantage.
The Chinese are in a position where they can blame the Americans for the present crisis in Gaza because the Americans did not, indeed failed to get a two-state solution.
The Chinese can say we can solve the problem. And now the Chinese are putting forward a proposal where they will have an international conference to deal with this problem. They look like the peacemaker; they look like they believe in diplomacy. On the other hand, the United States is involved in a war where it is supporting genocide.
This is a disaster for us, and it certainly works to China’s advantage.
Won’t the wars in Ukraine and Gaza end or die down eventually and the US can “re-pivot” to Asia, to contain China?
There is no question that at some point, maybe in a year or two, these wars will simmer down. But I don’t think they are going to go away. There’s going to be trouble in Gaza for as far as the eye can see. The US is going to be supporting Israel, it’s going to be deeply involved, despite some disagreements.
We are going to argue with them about what the post-war settlement in Gaza should look like. Gaza is not going away and the American interest in Gaza is not going away.
With regard to Ukraine, there is no question that the Russians are doing much better on the battlefield, and I do believe that ultimately, the Russians will win a very ugly victory.
But the US will continue to support Ukraine, transfer weapons there and talk about bringing Ukraine into Nato. There is not going to be any peace agreement here. The best you can hope for is a cold peace.
When you have a cold peace, you can be sure Americans will have to pay great attention to Ukraine.
So China is in excellent shape moving forward because the US will remain deeply involved in both the Middle East and Ukraine. I think Americans should be laser-focused on East Asia and pay little attention to Europe and the Middle East. But that’s not the way things are playing out.
