珍珠湾

岳东晓

Zhen Zhu Wan Online Community Club of Elite Chinese

Zhen Zhu Wan Online Community Club of Elite Chinese


Re: One trillion USD surplus market
Replying to: One trillion USD surplus market -- motif Post ReplyForum


swoosh

01/17/2024, 03:35:50




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Like I said previously, Taiwan isn't really a big nation with big population, not to mention it is greying faster than China. I'm pretty sure they can have a decent enough life if they can have the US market alone, not to mention there are EU, Japan, South Korea and ASEAN markets too, and the US is planning to have friendshoring, which I suspect will have Taiwan on bandwagon if the plan succeed. Of course there will be losers who can't find replacement easily, like the seafood industry. But in general, I'm pretty sure they can still have decent life even if China cut them off from Chinese market.

South Korea semiconductor is indeed a big loser from the trade and tech war, since the Chinese market still need their products but now can't get it due to US embargo. But for most of South Korean products, like smartphone, cars and EVs, etc, Chinese competitors have already replacing them in Chinese market, and soon in global market too. US embargo help them keeping the Chinese competitors at bay.

TSMC also the same as South Korea semiconductor companies, they suffered the most from this trade and tech war, and yes, the US is probably trying to hollowing the Taiwanese Semiconductor industry and moving them to the US. DPP must stand for Dumb Prick Pest if it couldn't see that happening. Some experts said that when Taiwan lose its semiconductor industry, the US may not be that invested in defending Taiwan if war happen. Frankly I don't really care about that.

My point is that if we cut them off from Chinese money, than China may lose leverage and ties with them. It will be harder to influence them later unless we use military force, which I think should only happen when there is no other resort and when China is much stronger.






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