Experts speculate the rare event for the powerful Type 094 vessel was a deliberate show of force, routine maintenance or possible malfunction.
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A PLA nuclear-powered submarine, thought to be a Type 094, was caught on camera by fisherman when it suddenly surfaced early Tuesday morning in the Taiwan Strait. Photo: Handout
Taiwan said it “closely monitored” the passage of a PLA Navy nuclear-powered submarine in the sensitive Taiwan Strait after fishermen spotted it surfacing abruptly early on Tuesday.
The submarine was seen at about 5am just west of the median line that separates the island and the mainland, about 46km (25 nautical miles) from Taiwan-controlled Quemoy Island, also known as Kinmen, according to news reports. The sighting was about 200km (120 miles) from Taiwan’s west coast.
Soon after, another PLA warship was seen escorting the submarine towards the mainland. The submarine did not submerge again, the reports quoted fishermen as saying.
“The military had a comprehensive understanding of the situation through relevant intelligence and reconnaissance methods,” Taiwanese Defence Minister Wellington Koo said, without giving further details or speculating on the crew’s intentions.
Taiwanese military experts suspected the submarine was a Type 094, based on photos taken by the fishing crews. They said the submarine could have surfaced for routine maintenance, a technical malfunction, changes in underwater topography, or a deliberate show of force.
“Nuclear submarines like the Type 094 have specialised missions and typically avoid surfacing due to their sensitivity and the need for stealth,” said Ying-yu Lin, a professor of international relations and strategic studies at Tamkang University in New Taipei.
However, he did not rule out the possibility of “navigational problems or technical issues causing the submarine to surface”.
Zivon Wang, a military analyst at the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies think tank in Taipei, said the submarine’s position indicated it was sailing within the 12 nautical mile limit of the mainland’s territorial waters.
“It was likely a routine transit for a mission switch or maintenance at the shipyard in the Bohai Sea, given its northward trajectory from its base on the southern coast of Hainan in the South China Sea,” Wang said.
Soon after it surfaced, the submarine was observed being escorted by a PLA warship towards the mainland, according to reports. Photo: Handout
He said the fact that only one PLA warship escorted the submarine reduced the likelihood of a technical malfunction. “Typically, in the case of a malfunction, additional vessels would be dispatched to provide assistance,” he said.
“The submarine’s navigation within mainland waters suggests a desire to avoid unintended conflict, especially if such a powerful vessel were to appear within Taiwanese waters.”
The rare surfacing of a nuclear-powered submarine, which can operate underwater for long periods, raised concerns in Taiwan, and prompted questions about whether it was another display of Beijing’s sabre-rattling against the self-ruled island or simply a routine transit.
Taiwanese lawmakers expressed concerns about whether it was an attempt by the People’s Liberation Army to increase military pressure on Taiwan, particularly after the war games were staged in May that simulated a blockade of the island.
Type 094 nuclear-powered submarines are equipped with JL-2 ballistic missiles. Photo: SCMP
The PLA drills were held just three days after William Lai Ching-te assumed office as the island’s new leader and declared that Taiwan and the mainland “are not subordinate to each other”. Beijing sharply criticised Lai, the head of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party, labelling him an “obstinate separatist” whose leadership could lead to war.
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of its territory to be reunited by force if necessary. Like most countries, the United States does not recognise Taiwan as independent, but is opposed to any unilateral changes to the status quo and remains committed to supplying arms to Taipei.
Su Tzu-yun, a senior analyst at the Institute for National Defence and Security Research, a government think tank in Taipei, said the appearance of the submarine could be interpreted as a show of force not only directed at Taiwan but also aimed at the United States and its Indo-Pacific allies. The allies, which include Japan, the Philippines and Australia, have joined forces to counter Beijing’s military expansion in the region.
“Another possible reason for the submarine’s surfacing is to avoid grounding,” he said.
The decision to surface the Type 094 submarine, a heavy tonnage Jin-class vessel, may have been precautionary to avoid the risk of running aground, especially given the shallow waters of the Taiwan Strait, he said.
Military experts also said that because this was the height of the squid fishing season, surfacing in the area could reduce the chance that such a vessel became entangled in fishing nets.
Type 094 submarines were also observed surfacing in the Taiwan Strait in 2021 and 2020.
Jin-class submarines are equipped with JL-2 ballistic missiles that have a range of 7,000km, putting the continental US within reach. The newest version of the submarine, the Type 094A, entered service in April and reportedly carries the even more potent JL-3 ballistic missiles, which have a range of more than 10,000km.
Wednesday marks the 70th anniversary of the PLA’s submarine force.
