Right now, it seems for Russia that this war is kind of like Afghanistan for them in a way. Still, Russia holds like 90% of all Ukraine economy and industry since the start of the war.Ukraine was kind of like a failed state before the war. Now it is definitely a failed state, needing handouts of money from the West to maintain the government, and needing arms from the West to keep fighting. Without the West, Ukraine is already defeated.
It appears at this time, given the Western support to Ukraine, it could be a very long stalemate.
That is where this war turns into another Vietnam for everybody.
If it turns into another Vietnam for everybody, it definitely favours the Russians. Ukraine is already crippled, and who knows how long the West will be interested in this war.
It is the old bacon and eggs joke. In a breakfast of bacon and eggs, the chicken is interested, while the pig is committed.
At this point, Russia just has to hold onto its gains. The other point what Russia can do is try to liquidate the remaining Ukrainian forces.
What Ukraine has to do is try to reclaim territory that the Russians currently hold. Easier said than done. It will be exceedingly difficult to regain or gain territory on the other side of the river.
Economically speaking, Russia is in good shape compared to Europe. The EU still buying loads of stuff from Russia. So this war is sustainable for Russia. Maybe not for 10-20 years, but definitely a few years.
Will patience run out in the West? Will the EU states have enough and give up on funding those Ukrainians, many of them are Nazis. LOL.
Guess it comes down to what one believes. Time is on someone's side.
The role of the EU is vital in this case, or in this equation.
This war is along the borders of Europe, and not somewhere else. If Europeans states cannot decide or are unified, then something could fracture. That works in Russia's favour too.
For Ukraine, and its backers, it is relatively simple path to victory. Win on the battlefield, or bleed Russia dry. Neither of those are happening at the moment.
For Russia, the path to victory is much more open and unclear. Just a few possibilities. Something will break here. The Russians are betting it will not be them.
A stalemate is not something that is bad for Russia. A long war. How the West reacts to that, is unknown.
As for China, there is a long way to go before it can be concerned or interested in anything about what is happening in Ukraine.
To make a long story short, the worst thing that can happen over there concerning China, is Russia losses completely and falls into chaos. That is extremely unlikely.
