With the largest grain inventories in the world, China is best prepared for a global crunch. Beijing has given priority to food security for its 1.4 billion-strong population for several years and began steadily building the country’s strategic reserves after the 2008 food price crisis.

China significantly ramped up imports at the beginning of the Covid-19 outbreak. In 2020, the country brought in 26% more grains and oilseeds than the year before, according to agricultural market data provider AgFlow. Import volumes rose a further 11% in 2021 and continued to show year-over-year growth in January and February of this year.

As Ukraine and Russia are major international grain exporters, tensions between the two countries began to push up the cost of commodities well before Russian troops first crossed the Ukrainian border on Feb. 24. Since December last year, cash prices for Argentine wheat and corn—a likely substitute for Ukrainian crops for a number of importing nations, especially in Africa—are up 27% and 38% respectively, according to AgFlow.

Countries with plentiful reserves can avoid paying these elevated prices by dipping into their existing grain silos. This could help to shield citizens from food price inflation. Egypt, which was the breadbasket of the Roman empire but now imports around 70% of its wheat needs from Russia and Ukraine, has reserves to keep its subsidized food program going for around 4½ months. Other countries such as Benin and Somalia have few reserves at all. China’s stockpile is formidable by comparison: Late last year, officials said that they had enough wheat to meet 18 months of the country’s needs.

Food inflation is high even before the impacts of the war really kick in. In February, prices in the U.S. rose 7.9% compared with the same month a year earlier. Many emerging markets are experiencing double-digit food-price increases. Turkey’s latest official inflation statistics show a 64.5% year-over-year increase. Chinese consumers are actually paying less at the supermarket—February food prices fell 3.9% compared with a year earlier.

In Aesop’s fable, the grasshopper played in summer and went hungry in winter, while the ant that stored food away was comfortable. After consecutive shocks from the pandemic and now a war, more governments may follow the ant’s example. As they give priority to building stockpiles, inflation in important food commodities may have further to go.

Write to Carol Ryan at carol.ryan@wsj.com

link:Food Hoards Can Ease Inflation, but Only Some Governments Are Prepared - WSJ