Not much ambiguity in a Taiwan scenario in the near to mid term where the
Replying to: 1)Its xpected yanks'll help TW in unification war2)TW is more a pschological -- ChairmanMaoHamet Post ReplyForum


Canis Majoris

05/24/2022, 12:18:27




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US will still tend to think it stands a chance of winning. The only ambiguity in this timeframe is who will join the US and Japan directly with military assets. The question marks are Australia and South Korea and to a lesser extent UK, France, and Singapore. I tend to think yes on Australia and no on South Korea given China's trump card in the form of little rocket man.

In the long term (I'm talking maybe 15+ years), the US will probably not intervene militarily given the miniscule power differential remaining at that time will make any US military intervention almost certainly suicidal. In that timeframe the US and its allies will attempt to wage a proxy war like it is doing now in Ukraine, arming Taiwanese to the teeth and hoping against hope that that will be enough.






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