珍珠湾

岳东晓

Zhen Zhu Wan Online Community Club of Elite Chinese

Zhen Zhu Wan Online Community Club of Elite Chinese


Putin is a sly fox, it is almost like he is using Chinese strategies
Replying to: If I were Putin, I would tell the pro-Russia troops in Ukraine to attack, -- rip2 Post ReplyForum


cyber horse

01/21/2022, 07:58:21




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Seems that to Putin, there is only two ways this can go.

The most controversial choice is to invade Ukraine. Take all that land up to that river, maybe even the whole country.

The upside to this is age old geopolitical thinking, that with half or all of Ukraine under control by Russia, that naturally creates a buffer state. When two large states have a tendency to butt heads, such as Russia and NATO, the buffer state in between can reduce that friction.

The downside to this is the economic damage between Russia and European countries, but that probably will not last forever, and China really does have Russia's back on the economic front. China will continue to buy everything Russia will sell it, and they already have a currency trading mechanism setup. If Russia gets access cut off to Western economies, so what, they will survive and live goes on, with that important buffer state between Russia and NATO.


Then, we probably all know that there is a split between the United States and European countries. If there is a war, it is a war in Europe. Those tend to spread. If there is a war, the economic damage will affect everyone in Europe, especially Germany the main economic engine of Europe. The Europeans have a much bigger stake in this to avoid a war, and to negotiate with Russia.

If Russia is able to split opinion inside NATO over this, then that seems even better. For Germany and France to damage their own interests in security and economics, that seems like lunacy, especially when they were all at the table the last time trying to negotiate a cease fire in the Ukraine when Obama was president.

Putin may be increasing the pressure to cause a split in NATO. If there is split in NATO, that could be a very big win for Putin. It would be like winning without even fighting.


Does not matter which way this goes, Russia should improve its positioning. That sly fox!

If they should fight, then Russia should stream roll Ukraine rather quickly.

That is the only thing that can go wrong, is a long war, but that does not seem to be probable.






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