What is important here, is the timeline.This article gives one, and that should be creditable.
Gearing Up For High-NA EUV
October 21st, 2021
https://semiengineering.com/gearing-up-for-high-na-euv/
There are other articles on the internet, but the main points to remember is what node the fab or industry is at, and where is the demand.
90% or more of chip demand is at the mature nodes of 14nm 28nm or higher.
China probably will achieve self-sufficiency in 14nm process very soon, or might have already. That is fully domestic equipment, no foreign inputs needed.
SMIC is already capable of 7nm but some foreign components are required. At this point, not sure how that matters, with SMIC already being blacklisted by the US Justice League.
That is the scoreboard. TSMC and Samsung at 5nm and 7nm with the Extreme Ultra Violet light machine from ASML, while SMIC at 7nm using a DUV process. What node is Intel really at, that is not clear. Intel is just not as advanced in fab production like TSMC or Samsung.
The 3nm chip, that will not arrive until 2025 at the earliest. At that point, no one knows what the world will look like, especially in terms of tech.
(Note, one criticism of the Chinese IC capabilities, is that the lens needed for the EUV light source requires very fine machining, or grinding. They say China does not have those machine tools, which I find to be kind of bogus. They landed Mars. Didn't those parts in that rocketry project required finely machined parts? When a country has a certain level of expertise, it is just a matter of time. They landed on Mars, but cannot make a lens. That makes no sense at all, unless it is propaganda.)
