According to new reports, China is going to build a military base in Tajikistan, and take control of another one. There is no official confirmation yet, but the move shows how much Beijing is worrying about instability from Afghanistan.
Who's hiding in those mountains? In Tajikistan, near the Afghan and Chinese borders. Photo by EJ Wolfson.
Tajikistan has approved the construction of a new Chinese military base near the country’s border with Afghanistan, and “offered to transfer full control of a preexisting Chinese military base in the country to Beijing and waive any future rent in exchange for military aid from China.”
This is according to a communiqué between the Chinese embassy and the Tajik government, reported by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), which is funded by the U.S. Congress.
There is further reporting: The Diplomat notes a story from a Tajik news site (in Tajik) on an “exchange of letters” between China and Tajikistan that provides further evidence of Chinese military base construction in Tajikistan.
China already operates a military base in Tajikistan near the Afghan border and the Wakhan Corridor, the narrow strip of Afghan land that borders China. RFE/RL has also recently reported on “Chinese personnel taking on a growing role in the area.”
China barely has any military bases in foreign countries: Aside from the Tajik installation which is not officially recognized, there is only Djibouti.
Why is China expanding its military footprint in Tajikistan?
“The fact that we keep seeing this activity in Tajikistan shows the level of Chinese concern toward Afghanistan and the region,” Central Asian security scholar Raffaello Pantucci told RFE/RL.
Beijing is likely worried about two things:
Belt and Road security: There are at least three groups operating in Pakistan and Afghanistan that have communicated explicitly anti-Chinese positions, and followed through with violence:
Tehreek e-Taliban Pakistan, an offshoot of the Taliban, claimed responsibility for an April 2021 car bomb explosion next to a hotel in Balochistan’s capital city where the Chinese ambassador to Pakistan was due to stay, just minutes before he arrived.
Islamic State Khorasan (ISK), an offshoot of the Islamic State (Daesh / ISIL) operating in Afghanistan, has targeted China with its propaganda in recent months, if not yet its bombs.
For more on recent anti-Chinese terrorist activity in Pakistan and Afghanistan, see analyst Lucas Webber’s newsletter.
Isolating the Uyghurs from foreign influences: Both Tehreek e-Taliban Pakistan and Islamic State Khorasan have expressed solidarity with Uyghurs, and Beijing has explicitly asked the Taliban to ensure that it won’t allow Uyghur militants to operate out of Afghanistan.
Hedging bets: Beijing is also schmoozing the Taliban
China is not just beefing up its military readiness in the borderlands of Xinjiang: Beijing has gone out of its way to court the Taliban and make sure that Kabul and Beijing see eye to eye on regional security issues:
In July this year, Chinese Foreign Minister Wáng Yì 王毅 welcomed a high-level delegation from the Taliban to Tianjin seeking reassurances of stability, as the U.S was preparing to withdraw from Afghanistan.
In September, China promised to keep its embassy in Kabul open and “beef up” relations, according to the Taliban.
