this is uncertain time
Replying to: China had fast(27.1%)trade growth in1st half of2021but may slow down in2nd half -- ChairmanMaoHamet Post ReplyForum


Swoosh

07/13/2021, 14:22:12




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what we have is probably supply and demand shock at the same time, a very rare event. Supply shock due to lockdown every where. Others will depend more on China for supply more than ever. But because of lockdown, economy also plummeted, so demand will also probably collapse. The situation is probably much worse than last year. Many countries already exhausted their treasury last year to deal with covid related subsidy and welfare. This year, they might not have that leeways anymore. Without subsidy and welfare, people will struggle to get by. In my country, I'm watching people's lives getting destroyed by lockdown. I'm afraid anarchy is coming, already people begin to fight back against lockdown.

As for price, it can be high inflation or severe deflation depending on whether the supply shock or demand shock is stronger. What really scary in my opinion is if the economy get destroyed by the pandemic, and then when people fallen into poverty, there is also scarcity in goods resulting in high inflation. Basically it is like the war zone. Terrifying indeed.






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