With friends like the US, Taiwan doesn’t need enemies

• Pentagon honcho encourages a Taiwanese guerrilla war against the PLA. If it’s just about spilling Chinese blood in another civil war, that’s more than okay for those Americans

The United States is considering helping Taiwan wage guerrilla, or irregular, warfare against an invading People’s Liberation Army. So, it’s worth working out what this will mean in cross-straits relations vis-à-vis the US. Truth be told, the Taiwanese should now be very afraid with friends like the Americans.

During a US congressional hearing, Christopher Maier, nominee for assistant secretary of defence for special operations and low-intensity conflict, said the US should strongly consider an effort to help Taiwan strengthen its ability to conduct irregular warfare.

“That is something that we should be considering strongly as we think about competition across the span of different capabilities we can apply, [special forces] being a key contributor to that,” he said.

US Senator Josh Hawley supported his strategy. But if the island needs to launch a guerrilla war, it means the PLA has already invaded it, and will proceed to the occupation phase.

So, what of the billions and billions of dollars of military hardware sold by Washington to Taiwan over the years? Scrap metal? Sorry, Taiwan, they are really no good for a conventional war.

(Have you ever wondered why Americans are happy to sell old weapons but not Covid-19 vaccines to Taiwan?)

How would Taipei interpret Maier, who is privy to top policy-planning at the Pentagon? So far as Americans are concerned, the linchpin of peaceful Taiwan Straits relations has been Washington’s implicit promise of coming to the island’s aid if the mainland launches an attack.

That has been in place since Washington switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing

That promise is becoming more ambiguous by the day as some Washington politicians and policymakers are practically encouraging independence for Taiwan.

Independence is the only casus belli that will force Beijing’s hand. For those Americans, though, it’s just one of multiple fronts in which Washington is confronting China.

But the more they sabre-rattle, the more US politicians will become cognisant of – and scared off by – the potential cost in American blood. If Taiwan thinks today’s America will come to its aid like it did with conventional forces for the South during the Korean or Vietnam wars, think again.

Instead, Americans will be happy to send special ops, and aid and spread a guerrilla war, just like they did in Syria and Libya.

If it’s just about spilling Chinese blood in another civil war, that’s more than okay for those Americans.

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Who needs enemies with a friend like US?