Nature Index 2020     Anatoly Karlin • May 16, 2020

Has been released.  (<-- link)

Here is the updated “state of the noosphere” (percentage of global high-quality scientific research produced by country, as proxied by the Nature Index FC).

	Country	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	pc12/19
1	USA	37.15%	36.49%	34.88%	35.00%	34.57%	34.10%	32.87%	31.40%	-2.4%
2	China	8.95%	10.21%	11.97%	12.91%	13.97%	15.83%	18.49%	21.14%	12.3%
3	Germany	8.00%	8.00%	7.85%	7.84%	7.76%	7.60%	7.37%	7.08%	-1.7%
4	UK	6.45%	6.43%	6.35%	6.49%	6.55%	6.28%	6.03%	5.88%	-1.3%
5	Japan	6.83%	6.60%	6.24%	5.74%	5.48%	5.32%	4.93%	4.71%	-5.3%
6	France	4.63%	4.39%	4.33%	4.09%	4.00%	3.76%	3.54%	3.49%	-4.0%
7	Canada	3.02%	2.91%	2.91%	3.00%	2.73%	2.69%	2.62%	2.50%	-2.7%
8	Switzerland	2.33%	2.29%	2.51%	2.27%	2.33%	2.30%	2.26%	2.32%	0.0%
9	South Korea	2.35%	2.26%	2.29%	2.39%	2.30%	2.23%	2.19%	2.24%	-0.7%
11	Australia	1.70%	1.84%	1.86%	2.05%	2.03%	1.85%	2.04%	1.96%	2.1%
10	Spain	2.37%	2.31%	2.13%	2.01%	2.08%	1.87%	1.87%	1.81%	-3.9%
13	India	1.45%	1.67%	1.82%	1.60%	1.57%	1.67%	1.55%	1.62%	1.6%
12	Italy	2.14%	2.12%	2.04%	2.00%	1.81%	1.76%	1.65%	1.60%	-4.1%
14	Netherlands	1.52%	1.49%	1.48%	1.45%	1.61%	1.55%	1.50%	1.45%	-0.7%
16	Sweden	0.94%	0.97%	1.00%	1.11%	1.01%	1.03%	1.01%	0.97%	0.5%
17	Israel	1.03%	0.93%	0.96%	1.03%	1.03%	1.01%	0.98%	0.95%	-1.2%
15	Singapore	0.92%	0.95%	1.02%	0.99%	0.95%	1.04%	0.98%	0.95%	0.4%
19	Russia	0.59%	0.68%	0.72%	0.65%	0.69%	0.70%	0.75%	0.73%	2.9%
20	Belgium	0.69%	0.64%	0.68%	0.70%	0.78%	0.68%	0.66%	0.64%	-1.0%
22	Denmark	0.59%	0.58%	0.62%	0.63%	0.69%	0.62%	0.66%	0.60%	0.2%
18	Taiwan	1.18%	1.06%	0.95%	0.84%	0.77%	0.73%	0.63%	0.58%	-10.1%
21	Austria	0.53%	0.55%	0.62%	0.54%	0.58%	0.64%	0.59%	0.57%	1.0%
23	Brazil	0.39%	0.46%	0.46%	0.40%	0.44%	0.45%	0.49%	0.44%	1.4%
24	Poland	0.35%	0.42%	0.41%	0.42%	0.36%	0.38%	0.38%	0.39%	1.5%
25	Czechia	0.23%	0.23%	0.24%	0.27%	0.30%	0.33%	0.32%	0.36%	6.1%

There’s no major change to existing trends:

• Slow decline of the West (on average -2.0% per annum since 2012), at about the same rate in both the US (-2.4%) and the EU-28 (-1.9%). Even so, the “West” still accounts for 65% of the world total, if down from 74% in 2012.
  • Within the West, broadly speaking, Switzerland (its 8 million people accounting for a stunning ~2.3% of science production), the Scandinavians, Western Offshoots (Australia, Canada), and the EU-13 are keeping their share steady, while the Med is plummeting at ~4% per annum.
• East Asia increases its share from 13% to 25%, of which more than 100% is accounted for by China.
  • As expected, China continues soaring (12% per annum since 2012), increasing its share from 9% to 21%. We can expect this to continue in light of China’s still unrealized potential and perhaps the greater freedom of inquire it offers its scientists relative to the increasingly SJW-ridden West (e.g. see this excellent essay by Wael Taji Miller).
• No major changes elsewhere: In terms of share of global science production, India remains stuck at ~1.6%, Latin America at 1.0%, Dar al-Islam at 0.7%, and Russia and the V4 countries at ~0.7% each.
• Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding South Africa) has shown strong growth since 2015, increasing from 0.05% of world science production to 0.08% – a rate of increase similar to China. But, that’s only four years – and from an almost imperceptibly low base.
• As I wrote in another recent article on The Nature Index, even within the northern core that produces ~95% of global elite-level science, just a few dozen cities/institutions account for the overwhelming bulk of it.

I don’t really have anything add to my existing analysis at The Geography of the Noosphere. Just an update that the data continues to back up its general conclusions – namely, (1) no “ice people” = no more science progress, and (2) Sinotriumph, so far as trends in global distribution of science production go.