As of right now, the New York Times has printed on their website that Washington State’s count of cases has passed 100, and its death toll has risen to 16. Safe to say that will be at 20 next few days.
Even though the WHO says the death rate is 3.4%, assuming a lower fatality rate of 2% then at 20 people expired that would imply 1000 cases.
That is 1000 cases in 1 state. Suppose California has 1000 cases. Suppose the New York and New Jersey area has 1000 cases. There are cases in Florida include a fatality and cases in Texas.
If there are about 5000 cases in the USA, then with their low state of testing, no one knows the true number, they cannot tackle it at the source which are infected persons, they cannot contain it effectively.
Once it gets loose to a few thousand and there is no containment effort, as there are no tests, the math will take over.
So right now, since no vaccine will be available soon, very spotty testing in America meaning no idea of how many and who, no real large containment effort, I have to expect the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States to exceed the number of cases in China in a couple of months. Unless of course the American authorities will enforce strict containment measures.
Getting very interesting, and dangerous for some people too.
