The current protest will have the same result as Umbrella Movement.1. Once the students go back to school, the numbers of hardcore protesters will dwindle some more.
2. The targeted arrests by the Hong Kong police will have very noticeable effect.
3. There is a real difference between the violent young protestors compared to the older peaceful protestors. The violent young protestors are small minority compared to the much larger peaceful protestors.
4. The Umbrella Movement was unpopular. Taking over the airport was unpopular. One of those student leaders actually apologized for that, said they will try not to inconvenience others. Blocking streets is unpopular, and the riot police will show up.
5. There is a lot of pro-government pro-police support in Hong Kong. That is why the Umbrella Movement ultimately failed. Not enough support, and hostile resistance by fellow Hong Kongers. In a divided society like this, cannot expected a decisive victory for one side where the other side gives up.
6. The Hong Kong government and Hong Kong police force as determined as ever to squash all unrest. It is up to the violent protestors how far they want to take it. After arresting over 600-700 people now, that is a lot of protestors, that is demoralizing to the protestors.
7. In one video, someone remarked they took over the airport because they did not believe the police will come in there with the pepper spray and tear gas. They did anyways. A lot of protestors are getting tired of the low level violence.
