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Zhen Zhu Wan Online Community Club of Elite Chinese


China threatens Canada over Huawei - yes, that is what is going on now.
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cyber horse

01/17/2019, 18:48:42




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Here is the article.

China threatens reprisals if Canada bans Huawei from its 5G networks
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-china-threatens-reprisals-if-canada-bans-huawei-from-its-5g-networks/

On the surface, nobody does business this way. When you threaten somebody to buy, of course they won't buy.

So either the CCP has finally loss it mind, or something else is going on here.

Basically, two separate themes IMHO explain this, and understanding parts of the background regarding the technology and the competitors in 5G explain this. Then a quick review of recent history.

First this is killing the chicken to scare the monkeys. Canada volunteered to the be the chicken here. The monkeys are the other customers. Noticed only the chicken was threatened, and not the other monkeys. The monkeys probably still noticed, even though they are monkeys.

Second, this is the dreaded position of the smaller countries. They do not want to be placed into a position where they have to choose sides between the two, to choose between USA or China. America with its dirty tricks CIA campaign against Hauwei to have allies side against it, now with China coming out this bluntly telling people how to choose or else, makes this another real show down over raw power.

Here is the part that makes it interesting IMHO. The actual technology of 5G and the players. Currently, from everything I have read, Huawei has no one close to them. Huawei will be 1 to 2 years ahead of everyone in rolling out 5G. Nokia and Ericcson is nowhere close. Then if they do catch up, what if their gear still inferior to Huawei? Also the patents, Huawei owns a lot of the 5G patents. If they roll out first, they will own even more 5G related patents. Everyone following will be paying Huawei the patent royalties.

So that is the situation a small country faces today after the anti-Huawei campaign from the Americans, and threats from China to the small countries that there could be repercussions if you choose against the PRC. That is a difficult choice.

The outcomes can only be 2. Almost everyone jumps on the Hauwei bandwagon, which means a big loss for the Americans.

Or that the West bans Huawei making it a big loss for China in its efforts to win over the West. However, the story does not end here. Time to refresh some recent history.

Remember the AIIB thingy? That was exactly this situation, although slightly different. What the formation of the AIIB came down too, what that every country picked a side. We know how that turned out.

This situation over Huawei today over 5G, same thing. Both USA and China asking everyone to pick a side. This not the first time it has happened, ie the AIIB thingy, and this will not be the last time this will occur. This is round 2 of "you have to pick a side".

The long term strategy for the PRC is crystal clear. You do not have to win this round 2. There will be more and more rounds coming. However, if the PRC wins a couple of rounds consecutively or 3 in a row, then it will be very difficult for the Americans to stop China over any future disputes that involves other countries picking sides. When or if that happens, that weakens America because America has important allies to lose not China. Not sure if China has any allies.

Also, we have to consider the technology. If China loses this 5G fight, and everyone picks America, China still holds most of the patents. So lose in politics but win the patent royalties. In other words, since there will be more rounds of this fight, this is a low risk high reward round for the Chinese.

IMHO, that is where we stand as of today regarding 5G, America and China both have said to little county, now you choose.

That is how I see the situation, to explain the bizarre behavouir of China threatening their customer Canada, the chicken volunteer.

The recent landing on the far side of the moon with Cheng'e was not a solo Chinese effort, and there was collaboration with European countries too. So it is a difficult and unpleasant choice and time right now, difficult for everyone.

If they choose against China over 5G, of course retaliate, and hit hard. But leave the door open because there will be round 3, round 4, round 5 ... as long as it takes to break American hegemony and imperialism!

If China can become strong enough to break American hegemony, America will not come back as a hegemony in your lifetime.






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