Taiwan’s economy is about 20 times smaller than China. Taiwan’s population is 60 times less than China. Taiwan’s military budget is 15 times less than China. China is nearing military parity with the US in submarines and fighter planes. Taiwan’s economy also has a large dependence and integration with China. Millions of Taiwanese men work or have businesses in China. China is Taiwan’s largest trading partner.

After 2021, China could theoretically successfully invade and occupy Taiwan, and the US would clearly not be willing to put up the massive military commitment needed to stop it.