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Zhen Zhu Wan Online Community Club of Elite Chinese

Zhen Zhu Wan Online Community Club of Elite Chinese


Threat? None - Military Challenages - lots
Replying to: Re: Thanks for the link -- freedomswarrior Post ReplyForum


LCol. W Yu

03/23/2000, 17:43:03




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There are two sides on how to view Chinese military challenages - that they are modernizing and that either could be viewed as a threat or proper defence doctrine.

The PLA is, according to some (Ye and the good Captain, ChinaWarrior can possibly expand more than I can), is moving to a highly professional force along the lines of NATO. Currently the Fist Units numbered 300,000 expected to rise to 500,000 while the rest of the PLA is being disbanded to pay for this new force.

Tactically, this would be a tougher, more mobile army, designed to hit anywhere anytime initially around China's borders and then anywhere in Asia soon. If this plan carries through, then, possibly on the US and South Korea on the Asian Mainland could stand up and slug it out.

There's only one problem with this. Five hundred thousand men ain't going to occupy squat outside of China. While a tough force that can possibly own the battlefield, it cannot own a country and there's no way in hell a general would use these cream of the crop troops as occupation forces and bleed them white against insurgents.

And the general requirements are that China still need numbers. From NorthEastern China and Tibet, she still needs vast occupation style forces to subdue insurgents. Though not a stated goal, India would probably love to have Tibet in her sphere of influence if not outright annexation. Pakistan is rattling sabres and the only hope she has of winning any war is Chinese intervention. North Korea might collapse forcing a refugee crisis along the lines of Albania but on a far greater and more dangerous levels. China is the only country capable of occupying North Korea and stablizing the situation if Kim really goes nuts. Vietnam, the Phillipines, Japan, Indonesia, and Malaysia all have water disputes with the PRC and the PLAN has already demonstrated resolve against the Vietnamese and the Phillipino.

Then, there is still the unpredictable Russian Bear to the North.

As for TW, it's not going to happen. The creation of the Fist Units virtually guarrentees it. Though the Fist Units might be able to take Taiwan, they can't hold it. Five hundred thousand just ain't enough to occupy a country of 22 million.

All in all, there is no real open threat posed by China against anyone but each one of these security concerns has to be addressed and those can be taken as a threat. India takes the 300,000 man occupation force in Tibet as a direct threat against her.

LCol W Yu (R),
CFR






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